UK food price inflation falls for fifth month in a row - Kantar

UK food price inflation fell for the fifth month in a row in the four weeks to August 6 providing some hope that the eye-watering cost of a grocery shop will start to ease for consumers, according to data published by market research group Kantar.

Grocery price inflation fell to 12.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from a month earlier in what was the second sharpest monthly drop since 2008.

The latest fall came after a series of price drops across supermarkets on basic goods such as milk, pasta, bread and cooking oils, in response to falling global commodity costs.

“Prices are still up year on year across every supermarket shelf, but consumers will have been relieved to see the cost of some staple goods starting to edge down compared with earlier in 2023. Shoppers paid £1.50 for four pints of milk last month, down from £1.69 in March, while the average cost of a litre of sunflower oil is now £2.19, 22 pence less than in the spring,” said Fraser McKevitt, Kantar's head of retail and consumer insight.

Hard-pressed shoppers were still hunting for value as inflation continued to outstrip wage growth. Sales of own-label items rose 9.7% over the four week period, compared with a 6.4% rise in branded products.

German discounters Aldi and Lidl continued to grab spending share from their UK rivals, recording the fastest pace of growth in the market.

Aldi’s sales rose 21.2% and Lidl’s 19.8% in the 12 weeks to August 6, compared with 9.5% at British giant Tesco.

Changing consumer behaviour also meant a fall in the average increase of a weekly grocery shop to £5.13 compared with last year, a significant decline from the £11.27 extra it would have been if they had continued buying the same items a year ago.

The unseasonal weather in July, which saw days of heavy rain, hit sales of our summer regulars, such as barbeque food and ice-cream.

“It was a better month for Barbie than barbecues this July as the rain put a spanner in the works for many consumers’ outdoor plans – a stark comparison to last year when we experienced the hottest day on record," said McKevitt.

Volume sales of ice-cream were down by 30%, while soft drinks sales were nearly a fifth lower than 12 months ago. Halloumi, a new staple of the British summer menu with shopper numbers growing by 218% since a decade ago, was also down by 27%.

“Instead of our usual summer fare, it seems we’ve been turning to more traditional winter warmers. The amount of soup bought has gone up by 16% year on year, while roasting joints have grown by 5%. Cooler temperatures and a wetter than average month may have also put people off from venturing to the shops. Footfall was down for the first time in 18 months with people making 320,000 fewer trips to physical supermarkets than a year ago,” McKevitt said.

Reporting by Frank Prenesti for Sharecast.com